An article in the local paper caught my attention the other day. It stated that collectibles weren't retaining their value over long term. Intrigued for obvious reasons, I read on. It seems that people who bought things like collectible decorative plates and figurines were finding that they weren't bringing a fraction of what they would have brought back in the 80's and early 90's. Items that once would have sold quickly for a couple hundred dollars were sitting unsold at fifty. Accompanying the article was a photo of a Beanie Baby bear in case anyone might have missed the point. All these people bought those collectibles thinking they would hold their value and even increase. Needless to say, they were unhappily surprised and very disappointed.

Many of these people had been collecting for years, keeping track of what they had and what it should book for. But they ran into some unforeseen consequences. First, they found that the Internet makes it very easy to shop around for collectible bargains. Second they found that there weren't as many people collecting their various interests as there once were, so demand for what they had was down-a classic buyer's market. But to me, the most telling line was that they were finding most folks who would have been interested in buying what they had to sell had already bought these collectibles when they were first issued. All these doodads had been marketed as collectibles to be saved and treasured. They had been offered with the serious collector in mind. And they had been marketed heavily to reach as many collectors as possible. No one had wanted to miss out on such once-in-a-lifetime-opportunities and few of them had. They were usually shipped with a serial number, and maybe a certificate of authenticity, or veracity, or some other three dollar word. But none of that seemed to matter much if there was no one left to buy on the secondary market.

Many of us over the years have seen other collectibles, most notably, sports cards and comic books, go from boom to bust. In those cases, most collectors cite the proliferation of special editions, limited editions, and collectors editions for overloading the hobbyist, and causing the entire hobby to crash and burn. At a certain point a collector will throw up his hands and say "Enough". Then he takes all his valuable collectibles, and if he is lucky, he might get back what he has in them. And once the boom goes bust and the money dries up, the hobby settles back to the hard-core collectors at pre-boom levels.

Yet there is still another factor in the sheer unpredictable nature of collecting, and that is the sheer passage of time. Collectible toys from the 20's, 30's, and 40's aren't bringing what they used to bring because the people who played with them as children in the 20's, 30's, and 40's are dying out and succeeding collectors don't have the same emotional attachment that their parents and grandparents did. We collect little diecast cars because that's what we played with when we were growing up and that's what we remember fondly when we try to recapture some of the magic of our childhoods. By the time our children's children are old enough to blow disposable income on a hobby, will anyone remember diecast cars well enough to spend big bucks to collect them? More likely, the game cartridges that are currently being worn our in your kid's Playstations will be the hot collectibles in the years to come. They meet all the requirements. They are present during our children's formative years, they consume hours of playtime, and finding them in good condition in the future is going to be difficult because they're being played with so heavily now. Remind you of anything?

So this means to me that, somewhere down the line, diecast values are going to take a serious header. But that's ok by me because I don't collect them for the value anyway. Nor do I worry overmuch about missing out on those expensive special collectibles. Sooner or later I'm going to encounter some ex-collector who will consider himself lucky if he gets back his original investment. Either that or I will find an estate sale liquidating a collection at whatever the future market will bear. Our hobby is a lot of fun, but it is, in the end ephemeral. Now, if you'll excuse me, I've got to go out and put some game boys in the safety deposit box for my old age.