Mattel is very good at selling 99 cent cars. No one can argue with their success. The whole concept of first editions and four car series moves a lot of merchandise. And by numbering all the blister cards, Mattel gives the completists a target to obsess over, persuading them to buy even the cars they don't like because you just can't have that gap in the numbering staring back every time you look at your collection. No other manufacturer even competes in the dollar and under range any more. Matchbox has been co-opted. Majorette and Tomica have been pretty much run off the continent. Corgi was bought and their 1:64 program assimilated. All other brands that still sell cheap 1:64 scale diecast are so far behind as to be inconsequential.

However, Mattel has been less successful selling cars for more than a dollar, specifically cars made for the adult collector. Traditionally Mattel has made higher level models, but aimed them at kids, not adults. California Customs and Park-n-Plates were not made with adult collectors in mind. As far back as the original silver club cars, Mattel expected all its specials and promos to wind up in the toy box.

So when Mattel went to produce models for their collectible market, they did so tentatively. The 25th Anniversary and Vintage cars were released only at Toys R Us, probably because they didn't want to stick too many retailers with merchandise that might not sell. Then they began experimenting with limited editions. Would collectors pay $5.00 for one? Yes they would. Would they pay.$10.00? By golly, yes, they would. $15.00? $20.00? $60.00? Well, maybe not. Perhaps, due to the prices that Redlines were already bringing, Mattel decided that the collector's market had very deep pockets, and introduced the Legends series. These were, beautiful cars, and remain some of the most incredible jewels I've ever seen, but for $25-30.00 each, and only sold in expensive sets, most were out of reach for most collectors. The Boyd Coddintons sold out eventually, but all the others had to be dumped on the market at fire sale prices to get them to move.

At the same time Mattel introduced the Collectibles line in the black boxes. Once again these were beautiful models, and at $8-10.00 each they are expensive, but not prohibitively so. The four car sets sold sluggishly and have been discontinued. The two and three car sets were a mixed bag. The black box singles were really hit or miss, especially since they were often repaints of earlier releases. The really hot models, such as Camaros and VWs have sold very well, but many have languished on the shelves and gathered dust for months.

A couple of years ago Mattel began to experiment with the $3-5.00 range. They already had the ability to turn out a higher quality car in limited numbers, with better paint, wheels and tampos, and called them Treasure Hunts. These were highly popular and served their function to boost interest in collecting Hot Wheels, but Mattel had to be grinding their teeth watching something they sold at break-even, or a loss being turned around and re-sold for 5 to 10 times retail. If the collectors were willing to pay more for treasure Hunt quality on the after-market, would they be willing to pay a little more at retail up front and let Mattel score a little of that Treasure Hunt style profit. Mattel's main competitors, Johnny Lightning and Racing Champions, (soon to be joined by Muscle Machines), lived on that middle market. Would Mattel find here the adult market it was seeking?

So now we are seeing the proliferation of upscale $3-5.00 series. The Milestones sold well enough, although hopefully Mattel has finally learned not to put a mainline wheel on an upscale car. The newest of these are notable for the appearance of castings that had been exclusive to the Collectibles line. As with the Legends cars that moved down to the Collectibles, the molds are already paid for. Mattel might as well get their money's worth out of them. And should any of these not sell, it is less psychologically painful for a retailer to mark down a $3.00 car than an $8.00 car.

Should the new series continue to do well, there could be some major shake-ups in collecting. The Collector's Market is already heavily saturated with new product, with new players, such as Jada, arriving every day. Could, and would, Mattel use it's clout with retailers to squeeze some competitors out of their shelf space? In light of currently falling re-sale prices for Treasure Hunts, might Mattel drop the program all together to get a bigger share of the profit up front before the after-market speculator can re-sell them? Will the black box singles in the Collectibles line be squeezed out? Will the collecting of mainline cars be de-emphasized as collectors spend their available disposable income on the upscale products? And most important, with the proliferation of limited editions, Internet models, Redline Club models, up-market series, not to mention all the good stuff coming from other manufacturers, will Mattel find out that the collector's market has a bottom after all?

Contact the Gent directly at ramckee@mindspring.com